Monthly Economic Wrap

During October:

  • According to the OECD, the global economy proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2023, but the growth outlook remains weak. With monetary policy becoming increasingly visible and a weaker-than-expected recovery in China, global growth in 2024 is projected to be lower than in 2023. While headline inflation has been declining, core inflation remains persistent, driven by the services sector and still relatively tight labour markets.
  • The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2023, before slowing down to 2.7% in 2024. A disproportionate share of global growth in 2023-24 is expected to continue to come from Asia, despite the weaker-than-expected recovery in China.
  • Share market performance was poor for the September quarter. The S&P 500 lost 3.7%, while the Australian S&P 200 lost around 2.2% on a price basis.
  • Global shares ex-Australia lost ground over the quarter, producing a return of -0.4% on an unhedged basis. The result was worse for hedged global shares, losing 2.8%.
  • In Australia, Value and Value-Weighted were the best performing styles for the quarter. Globally, all sectors were negative, with Value-Weighted and Value being the best performers i.e. least negative. Energy stocks were relatively resilient over the quarter, and one of few bright spots in a quarter where few sectors avoided falls. Most of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” – Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia and Meta – declined, weighing on the overall market.
  • Within Fixed income markets, Australian government bonds lost ground, while credit produced a solid return for the quarter. The main Australian fixed interest index, the Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Years Index was down 0.3%, while the Bloomberg AusBond Credit 0+ Years Index gained 1.3% for the quarter.
  • Global High Yield bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield Total Return Index Hedged into AUD gained a mediocre 0.2% for the quarter.

Read more in the Monthly Economic Wrap here.


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