Monthly Economic Wrap

During November:

  • According to the Conference Board, global real GDP is forecasted to grow by 2.9% in 2023, down from 3.3% in 2022. The Conference Board also expects further slowing to 2.5% in 2024. Economic growth is weighed down by still high inflation and continued monetary policy tightening. Looking ahead, the Conference Board expects relatively subdued economic growth over the short-term. Growth forecasts for 2024 are generally strongest in emerging Asian economies, and weakest in Europe and the U.S.
  • Rapid monetary policy tightening over the last year or so has weakened global housing markets, slowed bank lending, and pushed the industrial sector close to recession. However, those areas of weakness have been more than offset by persistent strength in household demand for services, which has propped up local labour markets.
  • Share market performance was poor for October. The S&P 500 lost 2.2%, while the Australian S&P 200 lost 3.8% on a price basis.
  • Global shares ex-Australia lost ground during October, producing a return of -1.0% on an unhedged basis. The result was worse for hedged global shares, losing 2.8%.
  • In Australia, Momentum and Value were the best performing styles for the month, albeit negative. Globally, all sectors were also negative, with Low Volatility and Momentum being the best performers i.e. least negative.
  • Within Fixed income markets, both Australian government bonds and credit lost ground for the month. The main Australian fixed interest index, the Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Years Index was down 1.8%, while the Bloomberg AusBond Credit 0+ Years Index lost 0.8% for the month.
  • Global High Yield bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield Total Return Index Hedged into AUD lost 1.0% for the month.

Read more in the Monthly Economic Wrap here.


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